BRATTLEBORO-As described by Adam Grinold, a decade ago, Windham County had the second-oldest population in the state, people were leaving the area in high numbers, and wages languished below those of our neighbors.
The executive director of the Brattleboro Development Credit Corporation says that the county has turned a corner in the intervening time and has experienced an uptick in population and employee wages.
The regional economy has also undergone more visible change over the past year, with some stark turnover in the business scene in downtown Brattleboro.
The most obvious and emotionally resonant change came this spring, as Sam's Outdoor Outfitters, a multigenerational downtown business, closed its flagship store at Flat and Main streets in April. Other storefronts on Main Street also stand vacant.
Several other long-running businesses, including Burrows Sports, Everyone's Books, and Mocha Joe's Coffee House, have found new ownership and will live to see another day.
And several of the shuttered storefronts are beginning to reopen, including the space on the corner of Main and Elliot streets, vacated by M&T Bank after its purchase of People's United. The Snow Republic Brewing Company, with one pub and restaurant in Dover, opened its second location in the space on Sept. 19.
How much of the business transition is the predictable churn of a retail ecosystem, and what larger economic trends should worry elected officials, planners, and policy makers?
At a fundamental level, said Grinold, the local economy remains strong. Employers large and small across the county are seeking to add more employees and continue to grow.
"As we sit here today, I would characterize [the economy] as in transition," Grinold said. "All in all, the opportunity for sales remains strong; the challenges are managing the expenses."
Travel north to Rockingham, and infrastructure projects like the Vilas Bridge, which have languished for decades, are making progress, with more projects poised to take off. The county's Communications Union District, DVFiber, is rolling out high-speed internet to previously underserved areas like Readsboro, Whitingham, and Marlboro, opening up new opportunities for remote work and new businesses.
And towns on the other side of the county have their own economic strengths and liabilities, as that region has historically survived and thrived as a tourist and second-home-driven economy.
Multiple economies at play
"'Eclectic' is the word that I would go with," said Eric Durocher, economic development director for the town of Dover. "I think each town has its own kind of special offerings all throughout the county that make this a unique county economically."
Dover is trying to boost its economic development opportunities with Durocher, who leads the town's two-person economic development office. The town maintains a website that touts the benefits of locating or relocating a business, framing the town as "the destination for business owners who want more."
These efforts - which include subsidies for advertising, business technical support, revitalization programs for signage and facades, a revolving loan fund, and a tax stabilization program - are funded by its 1% local-option sales tax.
Meanwhile, with 90% of the town's taxable non-commercial property composed of second homes, "We want to make sure that we're doing everything we can to keep that sense of community as much as possible," Durocher said.
Durocher stresses that Dover's second-home owners contribute to the town in their own way, for which town officials are grateful. Still, the high percentage of seasonal homes means the local pool of potential school board members, Selectboard officials, volunteer firefighters, library volunteers, and business workers is shrinking.
In other words, where you stand on the economy might depend on where you sit.
"I think it's working well for some and not well for others," said Chris Campany, executive director of the Windham Regional Commission, one of the state's 11 public planning commissions.
The WRC is charged with providing "the essential link between local, state, and federal government" in the absence of county government, according to the website of the agency, whose territory includes 27 towns, 23 of which are in Windham County.
In Campany's opinion, stagnant wages pose the biggest challenge for Windham County, where they lag behind those in similar communities in New England and many parts of the country. Add to that a severe shortage of affordable housing, and Campany doubts many residents' economic situations are improving.
"I imagine some people who are already on the margins are feeling like things are kind of slipping backward," Campany said.
For people new to the state and those who can work remotely, the quality of life might feel high, Campany said, especially if this person has retained a salary from a community with a higher cost of living.
But that might be a different experience from that of others in the county, he said.
"My concern that I've always had is the extent to which those who are most engaged in the local economy - meaning they are working here, they're earning wages here, they're spending money here, they're hiring people here - are directly involved in policy discussions," Campany said.
The common wisdom is that democracy and policymaking benefit from having people with multiple perspectives and experiences at the table. Only some, however, have the time or resources to volunteer or serve in public office. In general, those who can serve are retired or more financially secure.
"I don't think this is unique, certainly not unique to our region or Vermont," Campany said. "It's just the nature of the challenges of serving the public, whether as a volunteer or a public official: How much time and what amount of capacity do you have to actually be able to do that work?"
Reasons to feel encouraged
Grinold said as the costs of materials and other goods increase, businesses must balance raising their own prices while remaining competitive within the market.
"Wages, of course, are increasing, which is a good contributor to a growing economy," he said. "More money in more pockets allows those local dollars to move about our economy."
Better wages and reversing the county's population decline have been at the top of the BDCC's agenda since 2012, when Entergy, the company that owned the Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant in Vernon, announced that it would close the facility by 2014.
Vermont Yankee was one of the area's highest paying employers at that time, and BDCC and other area organizations worried that losing the large economic driver would adversely impact the region.
As part of the responses to the loss of a workforce of 650 employees, the Southeastern Vermont Economic Development Strategies (SeVEDS) initiative - its own nonprofit but legally affiliated with BDCC - came into focus with a mission of developing "long-term strategies that generate growth and prosperity in our regional economy."
"For us, it's about ensuring that we have high-skill, high-wage, and high-growth jobs and [that we have] those employers who can afford through the sale of their product or service to pay those high wages," Grinold said.
He noted that the region's wages have increased sharply over the past five years, though perhaps not as much or as fast as people would have liked.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Windham County's median household income was $51,985 in 2019. By 2022, it had risen to $65,473, an increase of almost 26% in just three years.
Increasing the state's minimum wage helped elevate the lowest salaries, he added. However, middle-income workers didn't see as big a bump.
Despite the myriad challenges, county residents have reason to feel encouraged, Grinold said, citing the population and wage statistics that show a reversal of fortune.
Grinold credits this change to the strategy set out by the SeVEDS strategic plan, "which is to invest in your assets and try to make those assets grow. It's not about wishing you had something you didn't and trying to make it happen."
For example, the most significant growth in wages and gross domestic product in southeastern Vermont has come through value-added food production, with companies such as Against the Grain, which manufactures gluten-free baked goods, and Commonwealth Dairy, which manufactures yogurt and other dairy products.
Meanwhile, Grinold continues to take calls from out-of-state employers and individuals who are seeking to relocate to Vermont.
"These kinds of things can take years to pull together," he said. "So it's not like we have a caravan of businesses driving up to put their stakes in the ground. But it is reassuring to have that continued interest."
Housing and real estate
"The housing situation - I mean, it seems to be both the chicken and the egg, you know?" said Campany, who believes that the dream of purchasing a single-family home on a large plot of land now exceeds the financial grasp of most residents.
Campany said municipalities are limited in their ability to make meaningful progress in building new affordable homes. He points to infrastructure, specifically water and sewer, as one of the biggest challenges to constructing large amounts of new housing.
"The only places where you're going to be able to get meaningful numbers of homes built is where [...] the public wastewater and water systems support that," he said.
Campany said Vermont needs a comprehensive map of where water and wastewater systems exist and their future capacity. Such a map would make it easier to see if the policies for building more housing align with the infrastructure to support that expansion.
The Windham Regional Commission has submitted a proposal to the Leahy Institute for Rural Partnerships at the University of Vermont to fund this project.
"We seem to be talking so much about regulatory policy, but we don't seem to be talking so much about the underlying infrastructure issues that determine what can be developed where," he said.
The lack of housing capacity has had a disruptive impact everywhere, including Windham County, where the median home sale price as of September - $315,000 - has increased by more than 50% since 2020, according to data provided by the Vermont Housing Finance Agency.
Those economic forces have compromised the inventory of rental units and the ability of people to find adequate housing - further keeping their current housing off the market for others.
In the meantime, in recent years, short-term rentals (STRs) via services like Airbnb or VRBO have provided a new source of income for property owners and have potentially increased the value of their homes. Yet they have been disruptive to communities and have adversely affected availability of long-term and workforce housing.
Those were a few of the pros and cons weighed by the Bi-Town Housing Rental Sub-Committee, which issued a Short-Term & Long-Term Rentals Report For the Deerfield Valley in 2023 after months of study.
Like most Vermont towns, Dover and Wilmington have a shortage of housing - specifically, housing that is affordable to local workers, Durocher said.
To that end, the subcommittee has launched deerfieldvalleyhousing.com, a website to address the issues of increasing the housing stock for permanent residents and employees and advocate for implementing a housing analysis and master plan created for the two towns in 2019.
Durocher explained that many second homes double as short-term rentals when the owners aren't in residence. He said these STRs are sometimes necessary to accommodate visitors to the region during some peak ski weekends when visitors outnumber hotel beds.
But a vacation home that doubles as a short-term rental wouldn't necessarily be used for a long-term rental, so the towns are looking at other solutions to the shortage of permanent housing, he said.
One effort includes an incentive program to build auxiliary dwelling units. The town has also arranged free educational programs about shared housing for residents. The committee has set the goal of adding five units of new housing to each town yearly.
It's a slow process, said Durocher, but over time, those five units will add up.
Though the subcommittee focused on recommending a more complex policy for short-term rentals, the Short-Term & Long-Term Rentals Report offered some recommendations for long-term rentals, including developing a program for owner-occupied homeowners to develop accessory dwelling units and developing an incentive program to change current short-term rentals to long-term rentals.
Durocher said short-term rentals still require management, and that it's hard to enforce rules when one's neighbors change every weekend. Dover has put some guardrails in place for short-term rentals, and, following a recommendation by the Bi-Town Committee, has contracted with a firm that can administer the program.
In passing the Short-Term Rental Registry Ordinance in August, which should go into effect in early October, the town has also instituted a few rules.
Properties must meet the state's fire safety regulations, and the property owner must designate an emergency contact who will respond to calls within an hour. This person doesn't need to live in Dover, but they must have the authority to make decisions. For example, they must possess the code to disarm a security alarm, be able to authorize contracting with a plumber in the case of burst pipes, or be prepared to deal with unruly guests.
Meanwhile, Windham County's real estate market is stuck, said John Hatton, an associate broker at Berkley & Veller Greenwood Country Realtors in Brattleboro who has 20 years of experience in the market and helps train agents. He is also a teacher for Windham & Windsor Housing Trust's home buyer education workshops.
According to Hatton, demand for houses is very high, while inventory is extremely low. It's a seller's market, yet many people can't realistically sell - because if they want to stay in the area, where are the houses they can buy?
Projects move forward in Rockingham, Dover
Rockingham Development Director Gary Fox feels enthusiastic about the town's economy. Despite a drop in population, the area has experienced a wage bump. Several big infrastructure projects have gained momentum after decades of sitting idle.
According to the town's economic report, the median family income in 2019 was $43,668. In 2022, that number increased to $70,165, more than 7% higher than the Windham County average of $65,473.
Fox credits growth at the three local manufacturing companies - Sonnax, Chroma, and the Whitney Blake Company - for helping increase wages.
He also pointed to the multiplier effect of many of Rockingham's larger infrastructure projects, funded by various federal, state, and local sources.
The Vilas Bridge, closed to traffic since 2009, is scheduled for renovations in 2029. The bridge is one of the connections between the Village of Bellows Falls and Walpole, New Hampshire, and is overseen by the New Hampshire Department of Transportation.
Redeveloping The Island has made progress, including cleaning a brownfield left behind by the former Robertson Paper Company. Fox said an area-wide plan for The Island includes adding mixed-use development with commercial spaces on the ground floors and housing above.
In a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Brownfields Assessment and Cleanup Program announcement, the EPA wrote, "The redevelopment of this former paper company in Bellows Falls is a model for how construction and demolition can be done to save money and the environment."
In 2013, the Bellows Falls Area Development Corporation took over the project to clean up and redevelop the 30-acre parcel bordered by the Bellows Falls Canal and the Connecticut River. The project is funded by federal, state, and local support, including grants from the EPA.
As the site of the former mill, some of the chemicals found in the soil and building materials included lead, arsenic, asbestos, petroleum, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, according to the EPA.
Fox said renovating and expanding the transit opportunities on the Island is a top priority for the town. The area around the train station is undergoing renovations, and the town is also working to renovate the old and undersized bridges that access the area.
He said work to replace the Depot Street Bridge has begun. The designs are complete, and the project has received federal funding. Work like moving utilities underground has started. Fox anticipates construction beginning in 2026 or 2027.
The former Bellows Falls Garage, built in the 1920s, was demolished and replaced by a new 31,879-square-foot building. Still called the Bellows Falls Garage, the multifamily housing project hosts 27 affordable housing units. The Windham & Windsor Housing Trust led the project in collaboration with DEW Construction and gbA Architecture.
Fox said many of these projects wallowed because they needed more leadership and political will.
"This time around, the town of Rockingham has that leadership - the willingness to take ownership of it, too," he said. "So we secured the new version of earmarks, so we're repeating what was done 20 years ago, but with a different leadership, and a development-oriented climate not only at the leadership level but all the way through" to the voters who approved the town budget and bonds.
He suspects some of the community's support for development comes from witnessing the loss of several local landmarks, like the Robertson Paper Mill and the Methodist Meeting House, which had been used for decades by Meeting Waters YMCA.
These, and other beloved structures, had crumbled beyond repair after years of neglect and lack of community support to redevelop them, he said, prompting several community members to embrace development.
A weakness in the Rockingham economy is its declining population, said Fox, who moved to the area 30 years ago, when Rockingham's population averaged 5,500 people. Pre-Covid, the town's population was 5,031. Two years later, the population had dropped to 4,867, marking an 11.5% loss.
When a community experiences that decline in population, "it hurts, and then there's fewer kids in the school, and you have a whole spiral that happens with the loss of population, so that's the weakness," Fox said.
He still sees opportunity.
The area can attract new residents by developing more housing and rehabilitating buildings, he pointed out. Part of Rockingham's area-wide plan includes renovating the living spaces on the upper floors in existing downtown buildings and attracting more commercial activity on the ground level.
During Covid, the Bellows Falls Opera House received a U.S. Small Business Administration Shuttered Venue Operators Grant, to which the town added additional funding. The combination of funds allowed upgrades to the building's roof to hold the weight of a new lighting system. The soundboard received upgrades. The venue hosts films and live performances, such as the Wild Goose Players' performance of Fiddler on the Roof earlier this year.
"I heard from out-of-town visitors dropping off guests at the train station that they loved the uniqueness of the various small shops - the café, vintage shops, clothing, LP record albums, used books, independent bookstore, jewelers, hardware, sporting goods, art galleries," Fox said.
As the home of Mount Snow Resort, Dover's economy has relied on winter tourism dollars for decades. Expanding the economy to include all four seasons is an active marketing effort by Dover's economic development department in conjunction with the Bi-Town Economic Development Committee.
"It's always been like feast or famine. You feast during the winter, and then you limp along through the summer until it snows again," Durocher said. "We're really trying to make it not be that way."
The town constantly looks to expand its offerings beyond skiing. Dover converted 53 acres of town-owned land into a recreational area called Horace Hill. The property includes high-end hiking and mountain biking trails and an 18-hole disc golf course. Durocher anticipates the new course will be a part of the Disc Golf Vermont Tour next spring.
According to Durocher, one benefit of living in Dover is that its community of approximately 185 businesses often takes initiatives to improve the town, like building pickleball courts, installing skateboard parks, and funding winter ice skating rinks.
Dover funds its economic development efforts using revenue generated through the 1% local-option sales tax. Durocher said the revenue amounts fluctuate but tend to average approximately $670,000 annually.
BDCC turns 70, and an economy's natural cycle
Grinold is giving the Windham County economy a lot of thought these days.
The BDCC is celebrating its 70th anniversary, which prompted him to pore through the organization's archives, an exercise that he said highlighted generational cycles of the local economy.
Grinold said businesses founded after World War II replaced industries that existed during World War I. Fast-forward to the 1960s, and Vermont experienced people moving here as part of the back-to-the-land movement, and the economy changed again. And now, workers can choose remote jobs.
He said that today's kindergarteners will have careers that people living in 2024 can't imagine.
So while Grinold doesn't feel that Windham County's economic sky is falling, he knows it is doing more with less funding and fewer workers, students, and volunteers.
Part of the county's current problem is that previous generations' business models were "built on a stable or growing population," he said.
"We're in the middle of trying to reinvent this, so we're fighting the fire in front of us," Grinold said. "And really, we should be figuring out how to make the earth a little less dry, right?"
Grinold said the region needs to remain focused on workforce development, skills building, and "ensuring that our employers have access to employees who can make their highest and best contribution to the community for their employment."
He said southeastern Vermont will remain competitive in the wider regional economy by maintaining strong support systems to help people thrive in their chosen careers from high school through early careers.
Many of the recent local changes are making people nervous, but Grinold said Main Street is constantly evolving.
"If you take a step back and look at that historical framework with which businesses come and go and natural life cycles, it's not as scary from an historical perspective than when you're living in the moment," he said.
According to Grinold, the community found a local solution to an economic challenge in the 1960s by selling bonds to help buy land and build a new industrial space on Putney Road to accommodate the Book Press, the largest printer in a town that made a good reputation in the industry.
The facility operated as a book manfacturing plant from 1965 until its Montreal-based corporate parent, Quebecor, closed the facility in 2000. (It is now the BDCC Business Park, which leases the 300,000-square-foot space to 19 enterprises that employ more than 200 people.)
But the vision of a nascent BDCC in the 1960s strikes Grinold as the kind of energy the region needs to meet the challenges of today.
"That was the community coming together to say no, this is important. We're going to find a solution. And I'm 100% certain that Brattleboro, southern Vermont, and Vermont will continue to find ways to transform itself," Grinold said.
A version of this story previously appeared in Vermont Biz magazine.
This News item by Olga Peters was written for The Commons.